Vindicated! (actually, not really)

A year or so ago, I was talking with a friend about world politics and I mentioned that I thought it was entirely possible for a Palestinian/Israeli peace deal to erupt suddenly in spite of the utter lack of progress.  He kind of laughed at me with a smirk that screamed “How could you be so naive?!?!?!?”  I explained that I wasn’t arguing that it was eminent or expected, just that I could see a situation emerge where the general population in Israel/Palestine got it in their heads that they wanted to shake up the status quo and impose a little of their desire for change, peace, and stability. He scoffed and stood on his belief that Israel will never change until the USA changes its stance and that the Palestinians will never be able to inject themselves into it outside of another intifada.

Now we’ve got serious proof that social and political Black Swans swim with the economic ones. And its not just Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and the other Freedom Dominoes, it:s happening in the USA as well.  The Tea Party was a Black Swan and its looking like the teacher protests in Wisconsin are another unanticipated event that could redefine society.

It’s pretty easy to get comfortable with the status quo but the world’s a complex place and you just never know what is or isn’t going to happen.  Best keep an open mind and don’t discount anything.

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1 Comment

  1. Bill Lawrenz

     /  April 5, 2011

    I often listen to Bloomberg business news in the morning, and I don’t recall a single one of those high paid, super smart, financial types mentioning anything about a possible economic downturn before either of the recent crashes. The best and brightest don’t seem much better at predicting the immediate future than anyone else, but I find that a reason for optimism rather than pessimism.


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